India Once Sought to "Balance" Bangladesh Policy by Engaging the BNP

In Bangladesh's political circles, there is a long-standing accusation regarding India: they “put all their eggs in one basket,” meaning they trust only the Awami League among Bangladesh's political parties. 

Interestingly, Indian officials don’t outright deny this claim and often provide numerous reasons for why they rely solely on the Awami League.

However, history tells us that, in the recent past, there was an Indian prime minister who recognized the importance of maintaining relations with the BNP. 

Not only that, but he also invited BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia to Delhi for a state visit during a time when the Awami League was in power in Dhaka. 

The goal was to establish a "new beginning" in relations between the two sides.

That Indian prime minister was none other than the recently deceased Dr Manmohan Singh, a distinguished economist and former leader of India. 

On December 31, Bangladesh’s interim government Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus personally visited the Indian High Commission to pay his respects to Dr Singh.

During his decade-long tenure as Indian prime minister (2004-2014), Manmohan Singh held several private meetings with Khaleda Zia. 

Up until 2006, when Khaleda Zia was the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, the two leaders met on the sidelines of Saarc summits. 

Even in September 2011, when Manmohan Singh visited Dhaka, he met with Khaleda Zia, who was then the leader of the opposition.

However, one of the most significant decisions of the Singh administration was to invite Khaleda Zia to India for a state visit in October 2012. 

This was a bold move, considering that Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, which enjoyed excellent relations with India, was in power in Dhaka at the time. 

The Awami League was not keen on India forging any independent relationship with the BNP.

Between 2001 and 2006, during Khaleda Zia’s government, Indo-Bangladesh relations had hit a low point due to various reasons. 

This had led to a certain “aversion” within Indian political circles towards the BNP. 

Despite this, Manmohan Singh decided that inviting Khaleda Zia to Delhi could serve as a stepping stone for a renewed relationship with the BNP.

Senior cabinet member Salman Khurshid played a significant role in this decision. 

Coincidentally, the very day Khaleda Zia landed in Delhi (October 28, 2012), Salman Khurshid assumed office as India’s External Affairs Minister.

But the question remains: why did Manmohan Singh invite Khaleda Zia, despite the bitter experiences with her government between 2001-2006?

At that time, the late researcher Joyeeta Bhattacharjee of the Observer Research Foundation in Delhi explained in a report that Khaleda Zia was extended a red-carpet welcome primarily because India wanted to maintain the “momentum” of bilateral cooperation with Bangladesh, especially in the security sector.

She wrote: “After the Awami League came to power in 2009, with their assistance, India was able to significantly curb insurgent activities in its northeastern region. Several key figures, such as ULFA leader Arabinda Rajkhowa and NDFB leader Ranjan Daimary, were apprehended. India was concerned that if there were a power shift in the next Bangladeshi election, this cooperation might falter.”

Bhattacharjee argued that since no political party in Bangladesh had won two consecutive elections at that point and the Awami League’s popularity seemed to be waning, there was a strong likelihood of the BNP returning to power. Hence, Khaleda Zia’s visit to India was a preemptive measure.

The week-long visit was indeed significant in weight and substance. Khaleda Zia met with Manmohan Singh, External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid, BJP opposition leader Sushma Swaraj, Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai, and National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon. 

The BNP delegation accompanying her included heavyweight leaders like Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, Shamsher Mobin Chowdhury, and Sabihuddin Ahmed.

During this visit, Khaleda Zia discussed issues such as counterterrorism, sharing water from common rivers, border management, and bilateral trade with Indian leaders. 

Sabihuddin Ahmed even stated in an interview that the BNP had revised its stance and would not object to granting transit to India, provided Bangladesh received a fair “transit fee.”

Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Syed Akbaruddin noted that Khaleda Zia had assured India that, if the BNP came to power, Bangladesh’s territory would never be used by anti-Indian militants.

When asked how India could trust Khaleda Zia’s assurances given the BNP-Jamaat alliance government’s track record, Akbaruddin responded: “We want to start a new relationship. Both sides agree it’s time to look forward rather than into the rearview mirror to see what happened in the past.”

His statement made it clear that India, under Manmohan Singh, wanted to build a working relationship with the BNP, setting aside past grievances. 

The opinion of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government did not factor into this decision.

Editorials and op-eds in leading Indian newspapers after Khaleda Zia’s visit also expressed hope that it might pave the way for a renewed relationship between India and the BNP.

Defense analyst Gautam Sen wrote in a report for the think tank IDSA shortly after the visit that it could lead India to adopt a more “balanced approach” in its policy toward Bangladesh. 

The suggestion was that India would no longer favor the Awami League exclusively but instead maintain a balance between the country’s two main political forces—the BNP and the Awami League.

However, just a few months after Khaleda Zia’s visit, the relationship soured again. 

When Indian President Pranab Mukherjee visited Dhaka in 2013 during his first foreign trip as President, Khaleda Zia declined to meet him. 

The BNP provided several justifications for the missed meeting, but the incident marked a turning point. 

Relations between India and the BNP took a nosedive and never fully recovered. With Narendra Modi’s BJP coming to power in 2014, the relationship effectively came to a standstill.

Yet, contemporary history will remember that, despite all doubts and mistrust, an Indian prime minister once recognized the need to build ties with the BNP and took active steps in that direction. Although those efforts did not bear fruit, that is a different story.

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